Bordering on Chaos: Guerrillas, Stockbrokers, Politicians and Mexico's Road to Prosperity by Andres Oppenheimer, Little Brown, 1996, 367 pp., $25.45 (cloth). The Mexican Shock: Its Meaning for the U.S. by Jorge G. Castahieda, The New Press, 1995, 254 pp., $23 (cloth). The Mexican Peso Crisis: International Perspectives edited by Riordan Roett, Lynne Rienner Publications, 1996, 130 pp., $13.95 (paper). Neoliberalism Revisited: Economic Restructuring and Mexico's Political Future edited by Gerardo Otero, Westview Press, 1996, 278 pp., $19.95 (paper). Most of the books reviewed here are based on privi- leged access to informa- tion which ought to give the reader more insight into Mexico's ongoing crisis. With one exception, however, instead of leaving us in a position to understand current events and pre- dict the direction in which Mexico may evolve in the coming years, what they give us is a better under- standing of the authors themselves. Oppenheimer's book-length pam- phlet, for example, is an unabashed effort to convince the reader that the writer's privileged access to the major actors and sources hidden from the eyes of mere mortals gave him special insight into the Mexican character. With his press credential and his highly visible column in The Miami Herald, Oppenheimer was easily able to interview notables from every part of the political spec- trum. He is accustomed to being treated well-to the point that he chastises Subcomandante Marcos for keeping him waiting. In the end, however, we gain more insight into the reporter than his subject. His central concern is to reassure his U.S. readers that Mexicans do not in fact dislike them, and are truly anx- ious to make NAFTA work. He offers up a country with only incon- sequential problems and much to contribute to the emerging continen- tal alliance-a country most obser- vant Mexicans would not recognize. Access to elite sources also comes easy to Castafieda, the scion of a prominent Mexican family and one of the better-known Mexican writers in the United States. He is less cer- tain than Oppenheimer, however, that the present ruling class is up to the task of government. It "disinte- grates in the face of international naivete and domestic indifference," he says. He criticizes the U.S. press for leaving its public unprepared for "the shock of discovering that for whatever reasons, the Mexican house of cards could come crum- bling down once again." Castafieda sets out to provide just this prepara- tion, but because his analysis remains on the level of interactions among elites, he fails to offer a guide to the complexity of the transition in which ordinary Mexicans are engaged. Roett, a well-connected financial consultant, has assembled a group of analysts to celebrate the ability of neoliberal regimes in the rest of Latin America to avoid the pitfalls of Mexican naivete and inexperience. This team of policy pundits suggests that one major product of the "errors of December"-as the 1994 devalu- ation crisis has been baptized-is the redirecting of U.S. interests fur- ther south, placing greater emphasis on the rewards of integration with other Latin nations. Like the analysts brought together by Roett, Otero's team also traces the failures of neoliberalism in Mexico. Otero has assembled ten thematic essays to explain the deep- ening political and economic crisis in which the government is floun- dering as it attempts to design an effective set of management tools. While the collection is somewhat pessimistic about the possibilities for a peaceful transition, some of the contributors manage to go beyond the standard elite analyses to iden- tify some of the potential sources of conflict and change that offer a promise of something other than palace coups or musical chairs among caciques competing for the reins of power. In his own essay, Otero seeks to identify a democratic basis for a sta- ble political order to assure long- term economic growth. Given the economic transformations under- way, however, he can only offer the troubling prediction that the "dis- mantling of social institutions ... must eventuate in a period of social conflict" whose outcome is indeterminate. In contrast, the analyses of grass- roots movements stimulate more optimistic judgements. The sensitive examination of the changing role of peasants (Gates), workers (Carr) and rebels (Stephen and Harvey) con- trasts starkly with Oppenheimer's arrogant dismissal of these newly mobilized actors. These thoughtful essays stand out for their value in helping North Americans under- stand the daily reporting of local conflicts and economic disarray that will continue to plague Mexico in the coming years. In the end, the weakness of most of this writing lies in the authors' convictions of the importance of their own ideas, their contacts and their privileged information. Only when the writers choose to allow their protagonists to shine, as in some of the Otero essays, does the reader gain insight into the process of grassroots struggle against the elites who have done such a terrible job in governing Mexico. Ulti- mately, it is in these struggles that the potential for change in Mexico lies. U.S. readers would be ill advised to rest complacently with the notion that increased trade will bring widespread prosperity to all concerned, or that Mexico's internal problems need not affect their north- ern neighbors. -David Barkin
