LIMA, Peru-Although the defeat of the center Right government party. Popular Action, was expected in the April 14 Peruvian presidential elec- tions, few predicted the extent of the opposition victory. Alan Garcia Perez, the 35-year-old candidate of the center-Left APRA party. attracted 48% of the vote, just short of the ab- solute majority needed to avoid a runoff. His opponent in the obligatory second round will be Alfonso Bar- rantes Lingan, leader of the United Left coalition, who received 23% of the vote. The outcome, a reflection of disenchantment with the conservative government and increased political organization among middle and low- APRA nor the Left has ever held the presidency. The government's unpopularity was evident throughout the campaign. Popular Action candidate Javier Alva Orlandini had little on which to base his campaign. In the five-year term of President Fernando Belaunde Terry, the Peruvian economy has declined tremendously, with workers taking the brunt of the crisis. Real wages have fallen dramatically as the annual inflation rate has surpassed 100% in the last three years. The exchange rate on the dollar rose from 200 soles in 1980 to over 9,000 before the elec- tion. Unemployment has also skyrock- eted, with well over half of the popu- lation on the fringe of the job market. The economic crisis was not the governing party's only handicap. Cor- ruption scandals and human rights abuses in the battle against the Sen- dero Luminoso (Shining Path) guer- rilla movement contributed to the catastrophic defeat. In contrast to the 467 which Beladnde gained in 1980, the uncharismatic Alva Orlandini barely reached the 5% required for Popular Action to continue as an offi- cially recognized political party. The pro-business Popular Christian Party (PPC), conscious of discontent with the government, broke its four- year alliance with Popular Action months before the elections. Despite a very expensive campaign, the conser- vative message of LuIs Bedoya failed to gain adherents outside Lima's mid- dle and upper-class neighborhoods, drawing only 12% of the vote. In his last televised speech, the candidate warned that if APRA or the United Left were to win, "we would lose the freedom to move about as we wish, to travel within Peru or abroad, and we would lose the right to choose our children's' education freely." Be- doya's scare tactics were apparently ineffectual. Appealing to the New Peru The APRA leadership recognized that the April elections presented a long-sought opportunity to overcome historical frustrations. The party has been Peru's largest and most or- ganized since the l920s, yet has nev- er been able to win and hold on to the presidency. It began as a popu- list, anti-oligarchic party with a large- ly middle-class constituency. In the l930s and 1940s, APRA leaders were persecuted by the military and ruling parties, but eventually forged al- liances with those same groups. As a result of an almost religious devotion to the party and its leader, Victor Raul Haya de Torre, who died in 1979, APRA had been unable to at- tract votes among independents and other non-Apris:as. Popular wisdom held that in Peru there were only two parties, the Apristas and the anhi-Ap- ristas. Thus, Alan Garcia's campaign fo- cused on extending support beyond the party. Garcia's youth was mar- keted to appeal to the "new Peru" REPORT ON THE AMERICAS Peruvian Politics A Historic Shift to the Left er-class groups, signifies an historic change in Peruvian politics neither FIsh exports have been hurt by falling prIces and competition PERU: A TWO-PART REPORT Peruvian Politics A Historic Shift to the Left BY CHARLES WALKER LIMA, Peru-Although the defeat of the center-Right government party, Popular Action, was expected in the April 14 Peruvian presidential elec- tions, few predicted the extent of the opposition victory. Alan Garcia Perez, the 35-year-old candidate of the center-Left APRA party, attracted 48% of the vote, just short of the ab- solute majority needed to avoid a runoff. His opponent in the obligatory second round will be Alfonso Bar- rantes Lingdn, leader of the United Left coalition, who received 23% of the vote. The outcome, a reflection of disenchantment with the conservative government and increased political organization among middle and low- er-class groups, signifies an historic change in Peruvian politics-neither APRA nor the Left has ever held the presidency. The government's unpopularity was evident throughout the campaign. Popular Action candidate Javier Alva Orlandini had little on which to base his campaign. In the five-year term of President Fernando Belatinde Terry, the Peruvian economy has declined tremendously, with workers taking the brunt of the crisis. Real wages have fallen dramatically as the annual inflation rate has surpassed 100% in the last three years. The exchange rate on the dollar rose from 200 soles in 1980 to over 9,000 before the elec- tion. Unemployment has also skyrock- eted, with well over half of the popu- lation on the fringe of the job market. The economic crisis was not the Fish exports have been hurt by falling prices and competition I Appealing to the New Peru The APRA leadership recognized that the April elections presented a long-sought opportunity to overcome historical frustrations. The party has been Peru's largest and most or- ganized since the 1920s, yet has nev- er been able to win and hold on to the presidency. It began as a popu- list, anti-oligarchic party with a large- ly middle-class constituency. In the 1930s and 1940s, APRA leaders were persecuted by the military and ruling parties, but eventually forged al- liances with those same groups. As a result of an almost religious devotion to the party and its leader, Victor Raul Haya de Torre, who died in 1979, APRA had been unable to at- tract votes among independents and other non-Apristas. Popular wisdom held that in Peru there were only two parties, the Apristas and the anti-Ap- ristas. Thus, Alan Garcia's campaign fo- cused on extending support beyond the party. Garcia's youth was mar- keted to appeal to the "new Peru"- REPORT ON THE AMERICAS "governing party's only handicap. Cor- ruption scandals and human rights abuses in the battle against the Sen- dero Luminoso (Shining Path) guer- rilla movement contributed to the catastrophic defeat. In contrast to the 46% which Beladnde gained in 1980, the uncharismatic Alva Orlandini barely reached the 5% required for Popular Action to continue as an offi- cially recognized political party. The pro-business Popular Christian Party (PPC), conscious of discontent with the government, broke its four- year alliance with Popular Action months before the elections. Despite a very expensive campaign, the conser- vative message of Luis Bedoya failed to gain adherents outside Lima's mid- dle and upper-class neighborhoods, drawing only 12% of the vote. In his last televised speech, the candidate warned that if APRA or the United Left were to win, "we would lose the freedom to move about as we wish, to travel within Peru or abroad, and we would lose the right to choose our children's-education freely." Be- doya's scare tactics were apparently ineffectual. the extremely young electorate. The party's slogan. "Our commitment is with all Peruvians." was intended to soften APRA'S sectarian image, stak- ing out ground between the conserva- tive parties and the Left. Yet to ap- pease APRA members. Garcia pushed his role as the political heir to Haya de Ia Torre. even adopting many of the politicians mannerisms. Garcia presented very vague plans and priorities and refused to debate the other candidates, in recognition of his huge lead in the polls. His ambigu- ous social democratic tone reflected the different tendencies within the party. One sector calls for closer ties to the Left and a return to the radical program of the 1920s, while another emphasizes a pro-business course. Al- though Alan Garcia is generally as- sociated with the more conservative tendency, he succeeded during the campaign in uniting the different fac- tions. Small Budget Hampers Reform The United Left's campaign was hindered by divisions within the al- liance and the difficulties that Alfonso Barrantes has had in his three years as mayor of Lima. The coalition is made up of diverse leftist parties ranging from a recently incorporated move- ment of progressive businessmen to the far l.ctt. whose calls for negotia- tions with Sendero Luininoso were considered treasonous by the conser- vative press. Lima is one of Latin America's most chaotic and rapidly growing cities, and reform efforts have been hampered by a minuscule budget and the constant opposition of the Be- launde government and much of the press. Barrantes has been unable to come up with rapid solutions to Lima's myriad problems: municipal workers' salary demands: accumula- tion of trash in the streets: generally insufficient city services. The mayor did fulfill his campaign promise to provide free milk to school children, a program which grew out of the Left's collaboration with local or- ganizations in the poorer sections of the city. Support in middle-class and some lower-class neighborhoods de- clined in comparison with the 1983 municipal elections, yet the 23 won by the Left can hardly be interpreted as defeat. The four-year-old coalition attracted nearly twice as many votes as the PPC, a testimony to growing support from unions, neighborhood organizations and intellectuals. Barrantes has formally conceded in recognition of Garcia's clear triumph, but a runoff will be held just to fulfill constitutional requirements. APRA won control of both houses of parlia- ment and does not need to enter into any alliances. Blackout Postpones Recount APRA's victory and a second place for the United Left is a setback for the other major force in Peruvian politics. Sendero Luminoso. The movement's calls for a boycott and efforts to sabo- tage the vote were largely unsuccess- ful. Absenteeism was lower than in previous years and voting was dis- rupted in only a few Andean districts. Sendero did grab headlines after the election by bombing several electrical lines, blacking out Lima and postpon- ing the recount. And in late April, Peru's top election official. Domingo Garcia Rada. was seriously wounded in an ambush. While Sendero clearly represents a stronger organization than the govern- ment purports, the movement appears to be stagnating. Support in the coast- al cities is not growing and the mili- tary has largely stifled advances in the central Andes. The new government's first year is.crucial for the fate of Sen- dero Luminoso. if Alan Garcia re- mains popular and the Left continues to represent a cohesive opposition, there will be little room for Sendero to expand. But if the economic situation continues to worsen andior the mili- tary were to assume a political role, Sendero's enrollment efforts could succeed. APRA itself has been giving mixed signals on its strategy toward the guer- rillas. Some party leaders have ac- tively criticized the armed forces' human rights abuses in the "emer- gency zone" while others have called for a rapid "military" solution. The opposition victory was an un- ambiguous rejection of the BelaOnde government and its handling of the economy, in particular. The widely read daily La Repablu'a referred to the election as Popular Action's "fu - neral." The two most common terms used to describe the current economic situation are "crisis" and "disaster." The government cites a long list of ex- cuses: the inherited foreign debt, slug- gishness of the international econ- omy. a decrease in the prices of Peru- vian exports, natural disasters (floods) and Sendero Lurninoso. But critics place the blame on Be- laUnde. His government attempted monetarist stabilization policies, deal- ing a heavy blow to domestic industry with a sweeping import liberalization drive. Transnational investors, re- strained during the reformist military phase of the early I 970s, were once again given carte blanche in major ex- port sectors such as oil and mining. Strikes have increased throughout the country in 1985 as the minimum wage, earned by approximately half the working population, is now down to the equivalent of $40 a month. Independence day, LIma, 1984 MAY/JUNE 1955 5 the extremely young electorate. The party's slogan, "Our commitment is with all Peruvians," was intended to soften APRA's sectarian image, stak- ing out ground between the conserva- tive parties and the Left. Yet to ap- pease APRA members, Garcia pushed his role as the political heir to Haya de la Torre, even adopting many of the politician's mannerisms. Garcia presented very vague plans and priorities and refused to debate the other candidates, in recognition of his huge lead in the polls. His ambigu- ous social democratic tone reflected the different tendencies within the party. One sector calls for closer ties to the Left and a return to the radical program of the 1920s, while another emphasizes a pro-business course. Al- though Alan Garcia is generally as- sociated with the more conservative tendency, he succeeded during the campaign in uniting the different fac- tions. Small Budget Hampers Reform The United Left's campaign was hindered by divisions within the al- liance and the difficulties that Alfonso Barrantes has had in his three years as mayor of Lima. The coalition is made up of diverse leftist parties ranging from a recently incorporated move- ment of progressive businessmen to the far Left, whose calls for negotia- tions with Sendero Luminoso were considered treasonous by the conser- vative press. Lima is one of Latin America's most chaotic and rapidly growing cities, and reform efforts have been hampered by a minuscule budget and the constant opposition of the Be- lalinde government and much of the press. Barrantes has been unable to come up with rapid solutions to Lima's myriad problems: municipal workers' salary demands; accumula- tion of trash in the streets; generally insufficient city services. The mayor did fulfill his campaign promise to provide free milk to school children, a program which grew out of the Left's collaboration with local or- ganizations in the poorer sections of the city. Support in middle-class and some lower-class neighborhoods de- clined in comparison with the 1983 Independence day, Lima, 1984 municipal elections, yet the 23% won by the Left can hardly be interpreted as defeat. The four-year-old coalition attracted nearly twice as many votes as the PPC, a testimony to growing support from unions, neighborhood organizations and intellectuals. Barrantes has formally conceded in recognition of Garcia's clear triumph, but a runoff will be held just to fulfill constitutional requirements. APRA won control of both houses of parlia- ment and does not need to enter into any alliances. Blackout Postpones Recount APRA's victory and a second place for the United Left is a setback for the other major force in Peruvian politics, Sendero Luminoso. The movement's calls for a boycott and efforts to sabo- tage the vote were largely unsuccess- ful. Absenteeism was lower than in previous years and voting was dis- rupted in only a few Andean districts. Sendero did grab headlines after the election by bombing several electrical lines, blacking out Lima and postpon- ing the recount. And in late April, Peru's top election official, Domingo Garcia Rada, was seriously wounded in an ambush. While Sendero clearly represents a stronger organization than the govern- ment purports, the movement appears to be stagnating. Support in the coast- al cities is not growing and the mili- tary has largely stifled advances in the central Andes. The new government's first year is.crucial for the fate of Sen- dero Luminoso. If Alan Garcia re- mains popular and the Left continues to represent a cohesive opposition, there will be little room for Sendero to expand. But if the economic situation continues to worsen and/or the mili- tary were to assume a political role, Sendero's enrollment efforts could succeed. APRA itself has been giving mixed signals on its strategy toward the guer- rillas. Some party leaders have ac- tively criticized the armed forces' human rights abuses in the "emer- gency zone" while others have called for a rapid "military" solution. The opposition victory was an un- ambiguous rejection of the Beladinde government and its handling of the economy, in particular. The widely read daily La Reptdblica referred to the election as Popular Action's "fu- neral." The two most common terms used to describe the current economic situation are "crisis" and "disaster." The government cites a long list of ex- cuses: the inherited foreign debt, slug- gishness of the international econ- omy, a decrease in the prices of Peru- vian exports, natural disasters (floods) and Sendero Luminoso. But critics place the blame on Be- lafinde. His government attempted monetarist stabilization policies, deal- ing a heavy blow to domestic industry with a sweeping import liberalization drive. Transnational investors, re- strained during the reformist military phase of the early 1970s, were once again given carte blanche in major ex- port sectors such as oil and mining. Strikes have increased throughout the country in 1985 as the minimum wage, earned by approximately half the working population, is now down to the equivalent of $40 a month. MAY/JUNE 1985 The streets of Lima are a testimony to Peruvians' creative survival tactics. Vendors sell an assortment of items on virtually every corner while street- theater groups, fire eaters and singers perform for spare change. Crime has also increased substantially, with iron gates now surrounding most office buildings. Sales of burglar alarms, locks and weapons are booming. Residents of the pueblos jOvenes, or shantytowns. around Lima have demonstrated a more organized. mili- tant approach. Massive marches to the government palace frequently pro- test the lack of basic services and the catastrophic economic situation. Many neighborhood organizations have formed communal kitchens, at- tempting to provide affordable meals. The shantytowns are also growing rapidly, as extreme poverty in the countryside forces thousands of cam- pesinos to migrate to the cities. As the residents become organized. they are joining APRA. the Left and indepen- dent organizations. APRA also benetltted from the con- solidation of the Left; anti-com- munism is stronger in Peru than anti- Aprism. Many conservatives admitted relief at Garcia's victory over Bar- rantes. Along with mining towns and the impoverished southern Andean provinces, the shantytowns of Lima have provided the greatest political support for the United Left coalition. In light of the increased size and or- ganization of these groups and the Left's efforts to overcome its own in- teral rifts, few doubt the political po- tential of the United Left. The new APRA government faces a formidable task. The outgoing admin- istration. which emphasized its loy- alty to the international banking sys- tem, has been in arrears for the last year on payment of the interest on Peru's $13.6 billion debt. Meanwhile, the working population has been promised a respite from inflation and unemployment. The conservative par- ties will now play the role of the in- transigent opposition while the possi- bility of the Left and APRA combin- ing forces looks dim. Despite these difficulties for the next president, the first and second place finish of the op- position parties signifies an historic advance of popular political move- ments over Peru's old-style "creole liberalism." It was not a vote of pro- test. Alan Garcfa said the day after the polling, but a vote of hope. Charles Walker writes for several Peruvian newspapers and magazines.
