IN A DARK ROOM, TENSE FIGURES HUDDLE I (N A DARK ROOM, TENSE FIGURES HUDDLE)around around aa table, their table, their faces illuminated only by a faces illuminated only by a Coleman Coleman lantern.lantern. Roberto D'Aubuisson and other politi Roberto D'Aubuisson and other politi cians scurry cians scurry in and in and out, bundles of paper under their out, bundles of paper under their (arms. Trash covers the)arms. Trash covers the floor,floor, overflowing overflowing ashtrays cover ashtrays cover the table, and each participant seems to be adding up a the table, and each participant seems to be adding up a different set of different set of numbersnumbers reflecting the reflecting the statistics he wantsstatistics he wants to to see. The FMLN see. The FMLN hashas blacked out the city blacked out the city and and ElEl (Salvador is)Salvador is choosing choosing (its)its new(new)president(president in the dark.)in the dark. In fact, darkness In fact, darkness was was a continuous themea continuous theme in the elec in the elec tions. The ARENA tions. The ARENA media media campaign led off with campaign led off with aa TV TV spot featuring a young couple lying in bed in the dark, spot featuring a young couple lying in bed in the dark, agonizing over their lack of money and employment. A agonizing over their lack of money and employment. A little girl's little girl's (voice)voice whispers,whispers, "Mommy, "Mommy, I'mI'm hungry." hungry." The The light goeslight goes on and the couple stare in despair at their on and the couple stare in despair at their child. The Christian Democrats responded with an ad child. The Christian Democrats responded with an ad showing a similar couple happily showing a similar couple happily answering answering (the same)the same hungry girl: "Why, come into the kitchen, hungry girl: "Why, come into the kitchen, then, then, and eat and eat all you want. Hunger is all you want. Hunger is a thing of the past, whenathing of the past, when they ran they ran (this)this country!" country!" Since virtually nobody has more to eat now than in Since virtually nobody has more to eat now than in the 1970s when "they," meaning the oligarchy, did run the 1970s when "they," meaning the oligarchy, did run the country, the spot was quickly the country, the spot was quickly withdrawn withdrawn in favor of in favor of another. Again the daughter's voice, but this time say another. Again the daughter's voice, but this time saying, "Mommy, I'm scared." The light goes on and the ing, "Mommy, I'm scared." The light goes on and the mother responds soothingly: "Don't worry, child. mother responds soothingly: "Don't worry, child. ARENAARENA lost." lost." ARENA mobilized ARENA mobilized onon a scale unprecedented in Sal a scale unprecedented in Sal vadoran electoral vadoran electoral politics.(politics. Its media)Its media campaign campaign (featured)featured slick television spots that would have been the envy of a slick television spots that would have been the envy of a U.S. presidential campaign and a radio blitz that ran up U.S. presidential campaign and a radio blitz that ran up toto five spots in a row several times during the same five spots in a row several times during the same program.program. Its rallies were probably the closest thing El Its rallies were probably the closest thing El Salvador has seen to a rock concert. The ARENA Salvador has seen to a rock concert. The ARENA colors red, white,colors red, white, and blue blazed from banners, bun and blue blazed from banners, bunting, T shirts, and flags. There were blaring renditions of ting, T shirts, and flags. There were blaring renditions of theme jingles, pom pom girls in fishnet stockings, fire theme jingles, pom pom girls in fishnet stockings, fireworks, women down front straining to touch D'Aubuis works, women down front straining to touch D'Aubuis son,son, even a blimp. Cristiani's standard stump speech, even a blimp. Cristiani's standard stump speech, repeatedrepeated virtually verbatim at every stop, was punctu virtually verbatim at every stop, was punctuated by bursts of up tempo music to offset his rather ated by bursts of up tempo music to offset his rather low keylow key speaking style. speaking style. On election day itself ARENA was even more im On election day itself ARENA was even more impressive. The electoral law allows each party to have a pressive. The electoral law allows each party to have a vigilante, or pollwatcher, at each of the 7,000 voting vigilante, or pollwatcher, at each of the 7,000 voting urns a number most parties struggledurns a number most parties struggled to even approach. to even approach. ARENA mobilized an army of 23,000: an illegal, but ARENA mobilized an army of 23,000: an illegal, but highly effective and intimidating presence at the polls. highly effective and intimidating presence at the polls. This, however, was the tip of the iceberg. Assuming the This, however, was the tip of the iceberg. Assuming the FMLN would declare a transportation stoppage, orparo, FMLN would declare a transportation stoppage, orparo, the party also planned Operacion Rescate, using thou the party also planned Operaci6n Rescate, using thousands of private vehicles to carry voters to the polls. sands of private vehicles to carry voters to the polls. There was even a contingent of food providers, replete There was even a contingent of food providers, replete with shirts sporting a knife and fork superimposed on with shirts sporting a knife and fork superimposed on the ARENA logo. the ARENA logo. In the final count ARENA won thirteen of fourteen In the final count ARENA won thirteen of fourteen departments, with just under 54% of the vote. Its 505,370 departments, with just under 54% of the vote. Its 505,370 total included 65,000 new ARENA voters since the leg total included 65,000 new ARENA voters since the legislative and municipal elections held a year earlier, a islative and municipal elections held a year earlier, a considerable sum given the FMLN's much more ambi considerable sum given the FMLN's much more ambitioustious effort to boycott the voting this time around. Yet effort to boycott the voting this time around. Yet the ARENA total comes to only 16.3% of the 3.1 million the ARENA total comes to only 16.3% of the 3.1 million eligibleeligible voters and only 23% of those actually regis voters and only 23% of those actually registered. tered. D'Aubuisson,D'Aubuisson, challenged on his claim that ARENA challenged on his claim that ARENA had a mandate with such a small percentage of the actual had a mandate with such a small percentage of the actual voters, responded that a similarly small number of U.S. voters, responded that a similarly small number of U.S. citizenscitizens voted, and "nobody suggests that Mr. Bush voted, and "nobody suggests that Mr. Bush should step down." Yet it is one thing to win the presi should step down." Yet it is one thing to win the presidencydency with a quarter of the eligible voters in the United with a quarter of the eligible voters in the United States, where those who choose not to vote have no States, where those who choose not to vote have no alternativealternative form of political expression. It is another form of political expression. It is another thingthing altogether in a country in civil war, when one of altogether in a country in civil war, when one of the belligerent parties does not participate. the belligerent parties does not participate. This half a million votes may be the most D'Aubuis This half a million votes may be the most D'Aubuis son and hisson and his associates ever receive. They had everything associates ever receive. They had everything inin their favor: the entire bourgeoisie behind them, a their favor: the entire bourgeoisie behind them, a virtually prostrate opponent before them, temporary virtually prostrate opponent before them, temporary unity withinunity within their ranks, and, as the opposition party, no their ranks, and, as the opposition party, no responsibility for the current crisis. It is unlikely future responsibility for the current crisis. It is unlikely future elections will find the party in such favorable circum elections will find the party in such favorable circumstances. stances.
A N (INTENSE RENEGOTIATION OF POWER)INTENSE RENEGOTIATION OF POWER has followed the ARENA victory. The old days in has followed the ARENA victory. The old days in which the military functioned as a faithful servant of the which the military functioned as a faithful servant of the oligarchy are gone for good, and both the Armed Forces oligarchy are gone for good, and both the Armed Forces andand the new government are far too dependent on U.S. the new government are far too dependent on U.S. aidaid to not give the Embassy its due. The business com to not give the Embassy its due. The business community, under the political leadership of the ultra Right, munity, under the political leadership of the ultra Right, has consolidated its corporate organization, fine tuned has consolidated its corporate organization, fine tuned ARENA into its political instrument, taken the ideologi ARENA into its political instrument, taken the ideologicalcal offensive, and won state power. offensive, and won state power. With these new cards, the triangle of United With these new cards, the triangle of United States SalvadoranStates Salvadoran Armed Forces Salvadoran Gov Armed Forces Salvadoran Government, an exceedingly lopsided affair during the Du ernment, an exceedingly lopsided affair during the Du arte regime, will become much more equilateral. D'Au arte regime, will become much more equilateral. D'Au buissonbuisson may not actually murder a U.S. ambassador as may not actually murder a U.S. ambassador as thethe Embasy accused him of plotting to do in 1984, but Embasy accused him of plotting to do in 1984, but neitherneither is he expected to step off a plane in Washington is he expected to step off a plane in Washington andand kiss a U.S. flag as did Cristiani's illustrious prede kiss a U.S. flag as did Cristiani's illustrious predecessor. cessor. SinceSince June 1 ARENA controls the executive, the June 1 ARENA controls the executive, the legislature, the judiciary, the Supreme Court, a large legislature, the judiciary, the Supreme Court, a large majority of the municipalities, and the bulk of the print majority of the municipalities, and the bulk of the print media.media. Its near monopoly of state power is in fact the Its near monopoly of state power is in fact the biggestbiggest card in ARENA's deck: With it ARENA hopes card in ARENA's deck: With it ARENA hopes to overcome the paralysis of the state apparatus that to overcome the paralysis of the state apparatus that plagued the Duarte government when ARENA con plagued the Duarte government when ARENA controlled the Assembly and the municipalities, the PCN trolled the Assembly and the municipalities, the PCN had the high court, and the PDC's base was melting had the high court, and the PDC's base was melting away. Much of the ARENA program is built around this away. Much of the ARENA program is built around this ace. ace. ARENA's program for revitalizing the economy re ARENA's program for revitalizing the economy relies heavily on the resumption of a positive relationship lies heavily on the resumption of a positive relationship between the state and business. Juan Hector Vidal, lead between the state and business. Juan H6ctor Vidal, leading economist at the influential FUSADES think tank, ing economist at the influential FUSADES think tank, says, "We have a big advantage over the Christian says, "We have a big advantage over the Christian Democrats because we have a mutual understanding Democrats because we have a mutual understanding withwith the private sector." Borrowing straight from the the private sector." Borrowing straight from the NewNew Right economic book, the party plans a rigid free Right economic book, the party plans a rigid free marketmarket program reducing state intervention by scaling program reducing state intervention by scaling back the export monopolies, re privatizing the banks, back the export monopolies, re privatizing the banks, andand gutting the agrarian reform thus reversing all the gutting the agrarian reform thus reversing all the reforms Washington insisted were necessary to isolate reforms Washington insisted were necessary to isolate thethe guerrillas in 1980.' The program, in fact, is very guerrillas in 1980.' The program, in fact, is very close to the package the International Monetary Fund close to the package the International Monetary Fund (IMF)(IMF) has been pushing on other debt ridden Third has been pushing on other debt ridden Third World countries, and the resumption of IMF funding for World countries, and the resumption of IMF funding for El Salvador is a key part of ARENA's plans for eco El Salvador is a key part of ARENA's plans for economic recovery. nomic recovery. ARENA business leaders hope the new government's ARENA business leaders hope the new government's measures will bring back the expatriate capital which measures will bring back the expatriate capital which fled the war over the last decade. Part of this money is fled the war over the last decade. Part of this money is expected to revive traditional export crops such as cof expected to revive traditional export crops such as coffee, whose impact on foreign exchange earnings and fee, whose impact on foreign exchange earnings and domestic employment would be felt in the short term. domestic employment would be felt in the short term. The rest would likely go into export industries, taking The rest would likely go into export industries, taking advantage of El Salvador's one abundant and growing advantage of El Salvador's one abundant and growing resource: idle (cheap) labor. resource: idle (cheap) labor. ARENAs project also depends on a more cohesive ARENA's project also depends on a more cohesive relationship between the civilian and military branches relationship between the civilian and military branches of the state. Much closer ideologically to the Armed of the state. Much closer ideologically to the Armed Forces than the Christian Democrats were, ARENA has Forces than the Christian Democrats were, ARENA has sought to use this affinity to define a new relationship sought to use this affinity to define a new relationship through the reuniones de acercamiento. ARENA's mili through the reuniones de acercamiento.ARENA's military policy contemplates such measures as passing dra tary policy contemplates such measures as passing draconian "anti terrorist" laws and improving the judicial conian "anti terrorist" laws and improving the judicial system'ssystem's ability to prosecute and incarcerate offenders, ability to prosecute and incarcerate offenders, thus establishing a legal justification and a "respect thus establishing a legal justification and a "respectable" means for repression; drafting more men from the able" means for repression; drafting more men from the middle and even upper class; ensuring a more efficient middle and even upper class; ensuring a more efficient collaboration between the Armed Forces and govern collaboration between the Armed Forces and government ministries involved in counterinsurgency programs; ment ministries involved in counterinsurgency programs; and, perhaps most importantly, making the party's or and, perhaps most importantly, making the party's organized base available as shock troops for various forms ganized base available as shock troops for various forms of expanded, more ideological paramilitary projects.2 of expanded, more ideological paramilitary projects.(2) Despite a history of tense relations between ARENA Despite a history of tense relations between ARENA and some in the United States, ARENA leaders are and some in the United States, ARENA leaders are confident of establishing an effective and stable rela confident of establishing an effective and stable relationship with Washington to keep the crucial aid pipe tionship with Washington to keep the crucial aid pipeline open. The antipathy of liberal Democrats toward line open. The antipathy of liberal Democrats toward ARENA,ARENA, shared by many at the State Department, is shared by many at the State Department, is well known. But the relationship between ARENA and well known. But the relationship between ARENA and thethe Republican Party has been long and cozy.3 A star Republican Party has been long and cozy.' A startlingtling number of ARENA youth activists actually began number of ARENA youth activists actually began their political careers in the Republican Party while at their political careers in the Republican Party while at collegecollege in the United States. Several arch conservative in the United States. Several arch conservative figures in Congress, notable among them Sen. Jesse figures in Congress, notable among them Sen. Jesse Helms,Helms, are close to ARENA leaders. Joseph Blanchford, are close to ARENA leaders. Joseph Blanchford, the former Peace Corps director now working at the firm the former Peace Corps director now working at the firm of O'Connorandof O'Connorand Hannan, has been an energetic lobbyist Hannan, has been an energetic lobbyist for the party in Washington, working to cement connec for the party in Washington, working to cement connections between U.S. businessmen and key players on tions between U.S. businessmen and key players on ARENA's Advisory Council.4 ARENA's Advisory Council.(4) This, then, is the ARENA dream:This, then, is the ARENA dream: Cautiously protect Cautiously protecting its vulnerable international flank, it will close off ing its vulnerable international flank, it will close off further FMLN expansion, while an export led upsurge further FMLN expansion, while an export led upsurge inin the economy isolates the Left and realigns the various the economy isolates the Left and realigns the various elements of El Salvador's elite into a stable, ARENA elements of El Salvador's elite into a stable, ARENA led coalition. led coalition. To be considered successful, the Cristiani govern To be considered successful, the Cristiani government need not accomplish nearly this much. Even pre ment need not accomplish nearly this much. Even preventing the economic and military situation from further venting the economic and military situation from further decline will be an important achievement. There are, decline will be an important achievement. There are, however, many good reasons why the Cristiani govern however, many good reasons why the Cristiani government may notment may not even attain these minimal objectives. S even attain these minimal objectives. S Marching Orders I. ARENA, "1-lacia el rescate econbmico," El Diario de Hoy (San Salvador), Nov. 20, 1988. See also Evelin Martinez and Aquiles Montoya, "Las propuestas econOmicas de los partidos politicos y las necesidades de las mayorIas populares," Estudios Centroamericanos, No. 481-482 (Nov/Dec. 1988). 2. Each of these measures has been on the Armed Forces wishlist for some time, but all have been stymied by army conflicts with civilian politics. The anti-terrorist and draft legislation was held up by the ARENA majority in the National Assembly, which was unwilling to shoulder such unpopular moves while Duarte was in power. [Authors' interviews with Colonel Emilio Ponce and Dr. Jos6 Antonio Rodriguez Porth, Sept. 1987.] The most recent counterinsurgency campaign. United to Reconstruct, bogged down in part due to tensions between the Armed Forces and the PDC-run ministries through which the aid was channeled, and in part be- cause the business sector refused to support any PDC programs. ISee Bob Ostertag, 'Disunited to Deconstruct," NACLA Report on the Americas, Jan.-Feb. 1988.1 And attempts to build paramilitary "civil defense" networks floundered without PDC support. lSee "A Job for Everyone."] 3. For more background on the origins of ARENA's relations with the Republican Party and the U.S. Right, see Craig Pyes, "Salvadoran Rightists." 4. For an excellent study of ARENA's U.S. connections, see Karen Brannan's forthcoming article in Corporate Report (June- July 1989).
