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With a string of huge new oil discoveries, pundits are wondering whether Brazil will become the next Venezuela—a poverty-stricken country that uses windfall oil profits to improve social welfare. Multinational companies are already jockeying for sweetheart deals, while social movements are busy forming strategies that will push the government—whether through higher royalty rates or outright nationalization—to make sure the potential profits do more than line the pockets of a few board room fat cats in the oil industry.

The Brazilian capital's booming real estate industry and its allies in the local government are scheming to takeover the Bananal, a ranch-turned-sanctuary for indigenous groups living in the city's periphery. Real estate speculators want to pave over the Bananal and build a luxurious development complex to accommodate Brasília's richest residents. With police raids and court rulings against them, the indigenous groups have been left with few options.

For the last five years, the countries of the Mercosur economic bloc have been riding a wave of economic growth mostly thanks to high commodity prices. During the boom, some countries of the bloc began efforts to reduce their dependence on U.S. financial markets with those windfall profits. Those initial efforts were good but insufficient. Still, the Mercosur countries have options available to help them weather the storm—if they move fast.

Regional elections in Venezuela on November 23 could have critical ramifications for the Bolivarian movement led by President Hugo Chávez. If the re-grouped opposition makes significant electoral gains, Chávez's long-term aspirations could be significantly complicated. The elections come at a time when dwindling oil prices and the economic crisis have created unexpected obstacles to Chávez’s ambitious foreign policy agenda.