On October 30, Brazilians will elect a new leader, choosing between a current and former president in what Bryan Pitts called “the most important election in Brazil’s history.” The contrast between far-right Jair Bolsonaro and leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could not be greater, nor could the stakes of the election be higher.
During the four years of Bolsonaro’s presidency, his actions and policies have emboldened the extreme right, increased political violence and hate speech, and glorified gun ownership and the military. As a result of his destructive environmental policies, the Amazon could be nearing “the point of no return,” new research suggests.
Since the first-round election on October 2, the country has been “plagued by a rabid disinformation campaign over social media unlike anything the country has seen,” writes Michael Fox. After polls underestimated Bolsonaro’s performance in the first round, confidence in predictions is shaky, and lies about election polls predicting a Bolsonaro victory have circulated widely on social media.
With two days to go, signs seem to point towards Lula winning the runoff by a small margin, an event that, writes Rafael R. Ioris, would be “a victory for Brazilian democracy.”
Lula’s victory would be a turning point for the country, after four years of Bolsonaro’s increasingly authoritarian leadership. But, MST activist Cassia Bechara cautions, “Bolsonarismo the project is bigger than the person himself,” and even if Lula wins, he will face a conservative Congress. Structural change, she insists, will only come through popular mobilization.
Check out NACLA’s recent coverage for more context on Brazil's elections.
The Most Important Election in Brazil’s History
Bryan Pitts | October 28, 2022
Brazil faces a stark choice in its presidential runoff Sunday. Can Lula and the Left overcome Bolsonaro’s misinformation and attempts to buy the vote? Read more.
Progressive Evangelicals Reject the Bolsonarization of Churches
Constance Malleret | October 28, 2022
Throughout his campaign, Bolsonaro has counted on the support of Brazil’s Evangelical community. But some of them are breaking the mold. Read more.
The Amazon Can't Survive Another Bolsonaro Government
Anna Beatriz Anjos / Agência Pública | October 27, 2022
CO2 emissions in the Amazon doubled in Bolsonaro’s first two years in office. A new study shows that the rainforest may be nearing the point of no return. Read more.
In Brazil, Disinformation Campaign Puts Democracy at Risk
Michael Fox | October 26, 2022
As fake news skyrockets, a Brazilian media scholar reflects on what’s at stake in the final days before the country’s crucial presidential vote. Read more.
Mobilizing People Power Beyond Elections in Brazil
NACLA | October 25, 2022
For an MST activist, a win for Lula in the upcoming runoff vote against Bolsonaro is only one step in a crucial struggle to rebuild the Brazilian and Latin American Left. Read more.
Brazil on Fire: Elections update with BrasilWire’s Brian Mier
Michael Fox | October 13, 2022
After an unexpected showing for the current president in the first round, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro are now vying to win over remaining voters ahead of the October 30 runoff. Listen to the podcast.
Brazil’s October 2 Election Results Evoke Disappointment and Hope
Gladys Mitchell-Walthour | October 4, 2022
Sunday’s election brought an unexpected show of support for President Jair Bolsonaro but also a number of victories for Black and trans women. Read more.
Lula lá? Progressive Victory, Underground Right
Pablo Stefanoni / Nueva Sociedad | October 4, 2022
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the first round, but Jair Bolsonaro performed better than expected. They face off in a runoff October 30. Read more.
A Victory for Lula is a Victory for Brazilian Democracy
Rafael R. Ioris | October 1, 2022
The leftist candidate is leading in the polls ahead of the election. But even if Lula wins, he will face many challenges. Read more.
Pro-Bolsonaro Groups Spread Lies About Election Polls
Laura Scofield and Matheus Santino / Agência Pública | October 1, 2022
In Brazil, the most interacted-with posts on social media contradict trustworthy information about Brazilians’ voting intentions. Read more.
Brazil on Fire: Amazon up in Smoke – Policies of Destruction (Episode 6)
Michael Fox | September 27, 2022
Brazil’s war against Indigenous peoples is as old as Brazil itself. But Bolsonaro’s administration has sought to accelerate the destruction of the Amazon and its peoples. Listen to the podcast.
Brazil on Fire: Ghosts of the Past (Episode 5)
Michael Fox | September 20, 2022
Brazil has long failed to reckon with its history of military dictatorship. President Jair Bolsonaro looks to that era with nostalgia, taking steps to push the country back in that direction. Listen to the podcast.
Brazil on Fire: Nazis on Your Street (Episode 4)
Michael Fox | September 13, 2022
Nazis have a long historical presence in Brazil reaching back to the early days of European fascism. President Jair Bolsonaro has emboldened them. Listen to the podcast.
God Above Everyone – Good versus Evil (Episode 3)
Michael Fox | September 6, 2022
Brazil’s growing Evangelical Christian movement set the stage for President Jair Bolsonaro’s rise to power. Listen to the podcast.
Free Lula (Episode 2)
Michael Fox | September 6, 2022
Six months before the 2018 Brazilian election, a judge jailed frontrunner Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on what many considered sham charges. The result was a clear path for Bolsonaro. Listen to the podcast.
Violence and Culture War (Episode 1)
Michael Fox | September 6, 2022
Jair Bolsonaro’s rise was marked by a wave of political violence with the hallmarks of a culture war manufactured in the United States. Listen to the podcast.
Democracy and Dictatorship (Episode 0)
Michael Fox | August 16, 2022
In this introduction to the new podcast Brazil on Fire, journalist Michael Fox sets the scene for Brazil’s critical October 2022 presidential elections. Listen to the podcast.
